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BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Argo --- It has picked up nearly every other Best Pic award in Tinseltown
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook --- The best picture of the year. Despite the top-heavy noms, it will likely fall to Argo.
Could Win: Amour --- A critical favorite, pulls the heartstrings. But not a memorable here-and-now kind of movie.
Other nominees:
‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’
‘Django Unchained’
‘Les Misérables’
‘Life of Pi’
‘Lincoln’
‘Zero Dark Thirty’



BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Steven Spielberg --- How can the Academy go against their living legend.
Should Win: Ang Lee ---  He filmed the unfilmable.
Could Win: Michael Haneke --- Again, the Academy adores this film and may give it this extra statue.
Other Nominees:
Benh Zeitlin, ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’
David O. Russell, ‘Silver Linings Playbook’

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Daneil Day-Lewis --- The man became Lincoln. Enough said.
Should Win: Bradley Cooper --- The performance of the year.
Could Win: Joaquin Phoenix --- He is mesmerizing, but his dislike of the award circuit doomed his real chance.
Other Nominees:
Hugh Jackman, ‘Les Misérables’
Denzel Washington, ‘Flight’

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence --- She was amazing, amazing, amazing.
Should Win: Naomi Watts --- Her performance as a mother swept away in the Indonesian tsunami was breathtaking.
Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva --- Oldest nominee. Birthday is Oscar night. Just won a BAFTA. Could spoil the evening.
Other Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, ‘Zero Dark Thirty’
Quvenzhané Wallis, ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Robert De Niro --- Heartbreakingly hilarious.
Should Win: Alan Arkin --- He plays the Hollywood insider too well.
Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones --- It's TLJ for crying out loud.
Other Nominees:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, ‘The Master’
Christoph Waltz, ‘Django Unchained’


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Anne Hathaway --- Someone calculated the votes wrong if she loses.
Should Win: Amy Adams --- She is brilliant as the outsider.
Could Win: Helen Hunt --- An Academy favorite in a very sexual performance.
Other Nominees:
Sally Field, ‘Lincoln’
Jacki Weaver, ‘Silver Linings Playbook’


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph --- A hilarious and spot-on feature.
Should Win: Frankenweenie --- Touching beyond words.
Could Win: Brave -- It's Pixar. So, yeah...
Other Nominees:
‘ParaNorman’
‘The Pirates! Band of Misfits’


BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will Win: Amour ---  No chance for anything else to win
Should Win: Amour --- See above
Could Win: Nothing --- See above
Other Nominees:
‘Kon-Tiki’, Norway
‘No’, Chile
‘A Royal Affair’, Denmark
‘War Witch’, Canada

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Amour --- The Academy loves this kind of script.
Should Win: Moonrise Kingdom --- A touching script.
Could Win: Django Unchained --- Tarantinto always has a shot
Other Nominees:
‘Flight’
‘Zero Dark Thirty’

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Argo --- Has won nearly every script award so far and it comes in as a fave for the big award.
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook --- Will go down as a classic script. Trust me.
Could Win: Lincoln --- The Academy loves historical scripts.
Other Nominees:
‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’
‘Life of Pi’


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Anna Karenina --- No other period film to match its grandeur.
Should Win: Anna Karenina -- See above
Could Win: Les Miserables --- A chance for this flick to sneak in here.
Other Nominees:
‘Lincoln’
‘Mirror Mirror’
‘Snow White and the Huntsman’

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: Skyfall --- Adele. That is all you need to know.
Should Win: Skyfall --- See above.
Could Win: Nothing else stands a shot.
Other Nominees:
“Before My Time” from ‘Chasing Ice’
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from ‘Ted’
“Pi’s Lullaby” from ‘Life of Pi’
“Suddenly” from ‘Les Misérables’

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Life of Pi --- Has picked up virtually every score award so far.
Should Win: Skyfall --- Breathless action music. Amazing.
Could Win: Anna Karenina --- Period piece with classical taste.
Other Nominees:
‘Argo’
‘Lincoln’


BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man --- Amazing Detroit doc.
Should Win: Searching for Sugar Man -- See above.
Could Win: How to Survive a Plague --- Liberal Hollywood might want to give another doc award to conservative bashing.
Other Nominees:
‘5 Broken Cameras’
‘The Gatekeepers’
‘The Invisible War’


BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)

Will Win: Inocente --- Cute, but serious.
Should Win: Redemption --- Very serious.
Could Win: King's Point --- Doc about retirement community issues.
Other Nominees:
‘Kings Point’
‘Mondays at Racine’

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: The Hobbit --- Did you see those beards?
Should Win: The Hobbit --- See above.
Could Win: Les Miserables --- Period piece makeup.
Other Nominees:
‘Hitchcock’


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Anna Karenina --- The theatre-as-a-set thing was brilliant.
Should Win: Anna Karenina --- See above.
Could Win: Les Miserables --- Again, a period piece.
Other Nominees:
‘The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey’
‘Life of Pi’
‘Lincoln’

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Could Win: Argo
Other Nominees:
‘Lincoln’
‘Silver Linings Playbook’

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Life of Pi --- Beautifully shot.
Should Win: Life of Pi -- See above.
Could Win: Lincoln
Other Nominees:
‘Anna Karenina’
‘Django Unchained’
‘Skyfall’

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Other Nominees:
‘Django Unchained’
‘Zero Dark Thirty’

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Argo
Other Nominees:
‘Lincoln’
‘Skyfall’

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Life of Pi --- Astonishing effects
Should Win: Prometheus --- the 3D was beyond amazing
Could Win: The Hobbit --- They love Peter Jackson's WETA
Other Nominees:
‘Marvel’s The Avengers’
‘Snow White and the Huntsman’


BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Will Win: Paperman --- Nearly perfect, though very saccharine
Should Win: Paperman --- See above
Could Win: Adam and Dog
Other Nominees:
‘Fresh Guacamole’
‘Head over Heels’
‘Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”’


BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Will Win: Curfew
Should Win: Curfew
Could Win: Asad
Other Nominees:
‘Buzkashi Boys’
‘Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)’
‘Henry’

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Oscar Nominees 2013

Well, it is that time of year. Actually that isn't true. For years on end Oscar has made its nominees announcement one or two weeks further into January, but this past year The Academy decided they hated waiting for all the guilds and other awards shows to make their picks and award their winners before The Academy even got around to nominating people and films. So, in an effort to make themselves "more relevant" they pushed up the nominations window. This had three huge impacts. First, nominations began near the beginning of December. Several films, including some of the biggest and most anticipated, had not even opened at the theater. This means that some of the Academy voters didn't get a chance to see all of the films. The second impact was ending the nomination period before all of the guilds (especially the influential Directors Guild) had a chance to make their feelings known. This could result in the broader Academy and the member guilds having very different picks. Finally, this is the first time in decades that the Academy makes its nominations before the Golden Globes are handed out. This, again, could result in some diverging picks.

And this isn't even noting the new e-voting....

Two quick nomination thoughts before the list:

1) Two movies that hit it big were Beasts of the Southern Wild and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK! Beasts is the little movie that could. It got a best actress nomination (including the youngest actress ever nominated), along with screenwriting and directing. Love it, love it, love it. And my personal favorite all along has been Silver Linings Playbook. SLP scored the sextuplet of nominations at the top. SLP has someone from ALL FOUR acting categories. SLP got a directing nod. And it got a Best Picture nod. This is a feat that has not been matched in more than three decades. And, in nearly every case (all but one in the history of The Academy), the film went on to win Best Picture.

2) Where are the big name directors? Sure, Spielberg got a nod for Lincoln, but Kathryn Bigelow didn't get a nom for Zero Dark Thirty. Tom Hooper didn't get one for Les Miserables. Ben Affleck didn't get one for  Argo. The chances of a film winning Best picture fall VERY dramatically when the film's director doesn't get nominated. In fact, it has been so long since a film won Best Picture without having its director nominated that it is considered a "death knell" for a film's chances.
 

So. On to the nominees. This will include the list of nominees in the top categories and my CURRENT thoughts on the CURRENT front-runners:

Best Picture:

"Beasts of the Southern Wild"--- Could be a dark house. Watch out SLP!

"Silver Linings Playbook" --- Not only is the my favorite, but getting a nod in every top category vaults it to the front.

"Zero Dark Thirty"

"Lincoln"--- Another dark horse. A historical Spielberg film has to be in the mix until the end.

"Les Miserables"

"Life of Pi"

"Amour"

"Django Unchained"

"Argo"
 

Best Director:

David O'Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook" ---- He has to be the frontrunner now with no Bigelow, Affleck or Hooper.

Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"--- Could be a dark horse because of the technical achievements in the film.

Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"

Michael Haneke, "Amour"

Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

 

 

Best Actor:

Daniel Day Lewis, "Lincoln"--- Dark horse one because he becomes Lincoln.

Denzel Washington, "Flight" --- Dark horse two because he is simply amazing.

Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"

Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook" --- Hands down the favorite for the moment.

Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

 

Best Actress:

Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"--- Dark horse one. She is very good; very versatile.

Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"--- Frontrunner. Not because of SLP's nomination haul, but because she is just that good.

Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"

Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"--- Who could say no to the youngest Oscar nominee ever?


 

Best Supporting Actor:

Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"

Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook" --- He is irresistible here. Hilarious, infuriating, sad.

Alan Arkin, "Argo"

Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Field, "Lincoln"

Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" --- She should have this in the bag.

Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"--- But SLP could run the table.

Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"

Amy Adams, "The Master"

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Well... Hello there...

I am back. For the moment.

I will be posting my thoughts on the Oscar 2013 nominations early tomorrow. Until then,

ChrisBrad

 

 

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Well...Crap...

So it has been several months since I have been on either DW or LJ. There's just too much stuff to do (life/work) and not enough time to do it. What little free time I have has been dedicated to personal drama, my kitties and playing on my PS3. There is just something wholly cathartic about shooting teenagers (via CoD or BF3) with a warm, fluffy kitty on my lap.... Weird, but satisfying...

Let's see.... Everything else pretty much sucks. I am still broke. I have had zero breakthroughs. Oh, and my health sucks....

I have little power over the first two, but I can do something about the last.... A little, anywho...

So, I joined a gym for the new year. I went yesterday and now I feel completely terrible. Nothing but teenagers with 28-inch waists and guys my age with six-packs and bulging arms.... Talk about a quick way to make a guy's self-esteem go from nothing to negative.... Part of me really wants to make a change, but there is a huge part of me that wants to be lazy... Being lazy is easier.... But there is also that huge part of me that wants to be a dad one day... And let's face it, I have to change for that to even have a chance...

The plan is to eat healthier. Not healthy... I would fail at that in a clogged heartbeat. Instead I am simply looking for healthier. I am also going to start walking again and I will go to the gym at least twice a week. The walking should be easy, I just need to trade videogame time for walking time. Then I need to trade cokes and donuts for tea and salads. The gym, though, will suck. I have already decided I will use that for the weights and that is about all... Besides, I couldn't afford the extra classes... There is a guy that has been assigned to me as part of my fee so I will utilize him a little. No too much though, as his chest is larger than my gut.... Damn.... I hate him.

Anywho, so that is that. I am not expecting a miracle. I would give anything for one, but I need to keep my expectations low... If I could lose 50  pounds this year I would say it was an overwhelming success... Although, I would much rather have a nacho cheese chalupa than a serving of no-fat spiced rice... (I hope these craving will vanish...Day 2 and I am wanting to give in...)

That is all for now,

ChrisBrad

2011 Emmys

Well, well, well....

It is that time of year yet again. Time for the pretty people on our small screens to pat each other on the back. That is right: It is EMMY time.

When it comes to picking winners for the Oscars, it more more of a mathematical calculation --- determine strength of the nominee, the pedigree of the nominee, the voting bloc for the category, the prior nominations and wins at earlier awards shows then throw in a pinch of gut to boot.

But the Emmys are a different breed.

See, the Emmys are creatures of habit. For example, see Mad Men. Don't get me wrong. Mad Men is a great, superb, awe-inspiring series. But it has won three years in a row for best drama. But was it THE best each year? No, but that matter not to the Emmy voters. They like to keep it in the family so to speak. That means that HBO will get a little extra strength than broadcasters. That means move stars get a little more support than small screen stars. That means that once you've won, you're likely to get a nomination (and likely a trophy) year after year.

That is what makes the Emmys such a tough nut to crack. Just because a series or star comes along that is bigger and better does not mean it will get the recognition is deserves. Having said that, I always like to make a guess. And, as always, I am more than happy to let it be known who should win. So....here we go!

Outstanding Drama Series
‘Boardwalk Empire’
‘Friday Night Lights’
‘Game of Thrones’
‘Dexter’
‘Mad Men’
‘The Good Wife’

SHOULD win: Friday Night Lights
WILL win: Mad Men


Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Steve Buscemi, ‘Boardwalk Empire’
Kyle Chandler, ‘Friday Night Lights’
Timothy Olyphant, ‘Justified’
Michael C. Hall, ‘Dexter’
Jon Hamm, ‘Mad Men’
Hugh Laurie, ‘House’

SHOULD win: Kyle Chandler for Friday Night Lights
WILL win: Jon Hamm for Mad Men


Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Kathy Bates, ‘Harry’s Law’
Mariska Hargitay, ‘Law & Order: SVU’
Julianna Margulies, ‘The Good Wife’
Mireille Enos, ‘The Killing’
Connie Britton, ‘Friday Night Lights’
Elisabeth Moss, ‘Mad Men’

SHOULD win: Connie Britton for Friday Night Lights
WILL win: Julianna Marguiles for The Good Wife


Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Peter Dinklage, ‘Game of Thrones’
Josh Charles, ‘The Good Wife’
Alan Cumming, ‘The Good Wife’
Walton Goggins, ‘Justified’
John Slattery, ‘Mad Men’
Andre Braugher, ‘Men of a Certain Age’

SHOULD  win: Walton Goggins for Justified
WILL win: John Slattery for Mad Men


Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Kelly Macdonald, ‘Boardwalk Empire’
Archie Panjabi, ‘The Good Wife’
Margo Martindale, ‘Justified’
Michelle Forbes, ‘The Killing’
Christina Hendricks, ‘Mad Men’
Christine Baranski, ‘The Good Wife’

SHOULD win: Margo Martindale for Justified
WILL Win: Kelly Macdonald for Boardwalk Empire


Outstanding Comedy Series
‘Glee’
‘Modern Family’
‘The Big Bang Theory’
‘Parks and Recreation’
‘The Office’
‘30 Rock’

SHOULD win: Parks & Recreation
WILL win: Modern Family


Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis C.K., ‘Louie’
Matt LeBlanc, ‘Episodes’
Steve Carell, ‘The Office’
Alec Baldwin, ‘30 Rock’
Jim Parsons, ‘The Big Bang Theory’
Johnny Galecki, ‘The Big Bang Theory’

SHOULD win: Jim Parsons for The Big Bang Theory
WILL win: Steve Carell for The Office


Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Edie Falco, ‘Nurse Jackie’
Laura Linney, ‘The Big C’
Melissa McCarthy, ‘Mike & Molly’
Amy Poehler, ‘Parks and Recreation’
Martha Plimpton, ‘Raising Hope’
Tina Fey, ‘30 Rock’

SHOULD win: Martha Plimpton for Raising Hope
WILL win: Laura Linney for The Big C


Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Chris Colfer, ‘Glee’
Eric Stonestreet, ‘Modern Family’
Ed O’Neill, ‘Modern Family’
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, ‘Modern Family’
Ty Burrell, ‘Modern Family’
Jon Cryer, ‘Two and a Half Men’

SHOULD win: Ty Burrell for Modern Family
WILL win: Ed O'Neill for Modern Family


Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Jane Lynch, ‘Glee’
Julie Bowen, ‘Modern Family’
Sofia Vergara, ‘Modern Family’
Kristen Wiig, ‘Saturday Night Live’
Jane Krakowski, ‘30 Rock’
Betty White, ‘Hot in Cleveland’

SHOULD win: Jane Krakowski for 30 Rock
WILL win: Betty White for Hot in Cleveland


Outstanding Reality Show

‘The Amazing Race’
‘American Idol’
‘Dancing With the Stars’
‘Project Runway’
‘So You Think You Can Dance’
‘Top Chef’

SHOULD win: The Amazing Race
WILL win: American Idol

Of course, there are other categories that involve miniseries and made for tv movies, but who cares about those? 

That is all...for this year... 

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Happy Bday to Me...

I am old.

That is all.

I am Sick

My head, sinuses, throat, eyes, ears and back are all killing me this morning.

Do not know if this is because it is Spring or because I am about to get older...

gads...

Yep.

So, things are really looking like they are going to royally suck when late April comes. It appears as though I am going to be forced into a two-week long conference of sorts that I have no desire to attend. Worse, it appears that my well-being may be in jeopardy if I do not go "with the flow." So, here I am. Whoot!

There is exactly zero chance I can say no. Even though I do not want to do it, I really have no choice. This will the the first time in a few years that I have been so royally screwed by these people. Granted, there have been issues, but nothing remotely like this. It used to happen a lot in the past, but things have been headed in a much more positive direction since, I don't know, the stroke or whatever.

Anywho, I can either say no and deal with some really negative consequences or I can just smile and take it like it is.

Grr...

Choices suck sometimes.
 

Where's Spring?

Seriously? 

It's like northern Louisiana somehow managed to skip from winter to summer and back to winter all within a week. This ain't right.

Allergies.

Pollen.

Mold and mildew.

Trees and weeds and grass.

It's all conspiring to kill me.